Anyone following news on the Social Security program knows that it is estimated to run out of sufficient funds to pay full benefits. However, the media doesn’t always accurately report when. This is due to inattention to the structure of the Social Security and Disability programs.
The Social Security Administration is required by the Social Security Act of 1935 to report depletion dates and much more to Congress each year. The time horizon for modeling the programs is 75 years.
There are two programs within the Social Security Act. The Disability program was added in 1956 through amendment to the Social Security Act. The official title of the two combined programs is now the “Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance” program. The report uses the acronym OASDI to refer to the combined programs.
However (and a big however), the two programs are separate. They have their own accounts and requirements. Social Security is Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, or OASI. The Disability Insurance program’s acronym is DI. Throughout the report to Congress, those three acronyms are used consistently. Each program is modeled by itself and presented in great detail.
If a working person sees a single payroll tax line on their paycheck, know that the tax is remitted to the SSA. Nowhere else. Both programs are “sequestered,” meaning that Congress cannot access the programs’ income for other budget purposes. The percentage of the payroll tax that goes to each program is set by Congress and largely unaltered over recent decades. The SSA enters the income percentage in each program’s account.
The report to Congress presents the modeling for the combined programs (OASDI), Social Security alone (OASI), and Disability alone (DI). (See the report’s table of contents.)
So when the front page of the AARP Bulletin for September/October 2025 states “SOCIAL SECURITY: FUNDING SHORTFALL AS SOON AS 2034,” the actual number for OASI depletion in the SSA’s June 18, 2025 report to Congress is 2033. One year earlier. I’ve seen the error elsewhere, too, not to fault solely AARP.
Anyone interested in learning more about these two programs should read the Overview in this year’s report. It starts on page 2 and ends on page 7. A short read. Here are the statistics that resulted from this year’s modeling of their most likely scenario, the “intermediate scenario.”
COMBINED OASDI PROGRAMS:
Depletion Year 2034
Income to Pay Only 81% of Scheduled Benefits
OASI:
Depletion Year 2033
Income to Pay Only 77% of Scheduled Benefits
DI:
“The DI Trust Fund Reserves are not projected to become depleted during the 75-year period ending 2099.”
Social Security has always been exceedingly political. It is often referred to as “The Third Rail” in U.S. politics.
Being on Social Security myself and being a now-retired financial analyst, I’ve been tracking the evolution of key statistics in these annual reports to Congress. Connecting those statistical dots shapes the story of this program, and its much smaller sibling, Disability Insurance. What I’ve found I’m sharing in the posts listed in the Social Security category.
For easy access to each annual Social Security Trustees report to Congress, here are links to both this year’s report and to the SS Trustees’ series of annual reports. Each is available in PDF form. The presentation may be slightly different in earlier years, but the PDF is always there.
June 2025 SS Trustees Report to Congress https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/tr2025.pdf
SS Trustees Annual Reports to Congress (Prior) https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/tr/